Where McKinney Is Headed Next: 8 Areas on the Rise

Every agent in North Texas calls some part of town "up and coming." Most of the time there's nothing behind it but a hunch. I set a stricter bar for this post. An area only made the cut if a public record shows money and people moving toward it: permit counts, a signed development agreement, a funded road project, a school district decision, or a terminal under construction.

When you line those records up, the direction is obvious. McKinney is growing north and east. The city set a record in 2024 with 2,310 single family permits, and Painted Tree and Trinity Falls alone pulled 1,167 of them. Meanwhile McKinney ISD is closing three elementary schools in the southwest because classrooms there have empty seats while the north and northeast keep filling. And TxDOT documents covered by Community Impact put countywide US 380 work at nearly $8 billion, on top of the Spur 399 widening already underway.

Growth has a price too: years of construction, a MUD or PID line on the tax bill, and sometimes a McKinney mailing address that isn't inside the City of McKinney. I'm a REALTOR and a loan officer with NEXA Mortgage, so for each area I'll point out both the upside and the cost that shows up in your monthly payment.

Quick answer: North central and far north McKinney (Painted Tree, Trinity Falls) lead on construction volume. Northwest McKinney (Honey Creek, Erwin Farms, Aster Park, Highland Lakes) is next, with a 10,500 home plan approved. The US 380 corridor, the airport and Spur 399 area, and the blocks east of Highway 5 are driven by public investment. Simpson Crossing and Eastridge are the low price entry points, with PIDs attached.

The Permit Data Behind This List

Permit counts are from the city's 2024 Annual Development Report. The report doesn't sort permits by quadrant, so the location column is my own read of where each subdivision is. Of the ten, eight sit north of the US 380 corridor or right next to it.

Growth Driver One: Big Master Plans

1. Painted Tree, the Volume Leader

The evidence: 787 single family permits in 2024, far ahead of every other subdivision in the city.

Painted Tree spreads across roughly 1,100 acres, with Hardin Blvd, Wilmeth Rd, and Lake Forest Dr framing it. In July 2025, Community Impact reported plans for about 3,800 homes from more than 10 builders, with townhomes and multifamily in the mix. Schools are McKinney ISD. When I checked Coventry Homes' Painted Tree page in October 2026, it listed 50 foot lots starting at $529,990, 60 foot lots at $649,990, and 70 foot lots at $788,888. The same page describes a 20 acre lake, a food truck court, and around 25 miles of trails linking toward Erwin Park and Bonnie Wenk Park.

The catch: many sections are still active construction. None of the sources I reviewed showed a Painted Tree MUD or PID, but absence of evidence isn't a guarantee. Get the specific tax and assessment breakdown from the builder or title company for any lot you're considering. More on my Painted Tree page.

2. Trinity Falls, Strong Sales With a MUD

The evidence: 380 permits in 2024, plus 336 closed sales over the 12 months to October 2026 at a $555,000 median, per NTREIS MLS.

This roughly 2,000 acre master plan follows the Trinity River's East Fork and has been under Johnson Development since 2016. As of October 2026, the builder lineup includes Chesmar, Coventry, Drees, Highland, Perry, and Del Webb. Del Webb runs an age restricted section for buyers 55 and over, with new homes starting at $351,990. Inside the community, Frazier Elementary opened its doors in 2023 and was rated A for 2024 to 2025.

The catch: despite the McKinney address, the City says Trinity Falls is outside its tax jurisdiction. In place of the city rate, owners pay either MUD No. 2 or McKinney MUD No. 1, which levied 0.9847 per $100 for 2025, which pushes the combined rate well past what in city neighborhoods pay. When I prequalify someone for Trinity Falls, I use the MUD rate in the escrow estimate from day one so there's no surprise at closing. Details on my Trinity Falls page.

3. Honey Creek, Erwin Farms, and the Land Near Erwin Park

The evidence: in September 2024, City Council approved a Honey Creek development agreement allowing as many as 10,500 homes, both single family and multifamily, on land near Erwin Park that lies north of US 380 and west of US 75. Republic Property Group is the developer, the agreement sets up McKinney's first Municipal Management District, and it requires a minimum of 80 acres for commercial use.

Building has already started. The 2024 top ten includes both Honey Creek Addition, at 128 permits, and Preserve at Honey Creek, at 120. Next to them sits Erwin Farms, with 136 permits: about 196 homes on roughly 185 acres bordering 212 acre Erwin Park. Wyatt James and Pulte are the builders, and the schools are McKinney ISD.

The catch: a Municipal Management District has the power to charge owners a separate tax or assessment. Get the exact figure before you commit, and expect a plan this large to mean construction for many years.

4. McKinney's Prosper ISD Pocket: Aster Park and Highland Lakes

The evidence: two of 2024's top ten permit subdivisions have McKinney addresses but feed Prosper ISD.

If you want Prosper ISD without paying Prosper prices, this corner of McKinney is where I'd look first. For context, Redfin had McKinney at a $511,000 median for August 2026, while Prosper's three month median through September 2026 was $840,125. My Aster Park page goes deeper on that community.

Growth Driver Two: Roads and Runways

5. Along the Future US 380 Freeway

The evidence: TxDOT finalized where US 380 will go in September 2023, and right of way purchases have followed. The McKinney stretch is designed with eight controlled access lanes plus frontage roads. Community Impact, citing TxDOT documents in December 2024, put countywide US 380 spending near $8 billion and showed the McKinney segment "ready to let" in 2027, the same year TxDOT expects to award the first contract. TxDOT forecasts 114,400 vehicles a day on US 380 by 2050.

New freeway interchanges tend to attract retail, offices, and medical buildings, and the 2024 Annual Development Report already flagged significant nonresidential development along US 380. The flip side is years of noise and detours for homes near the route, and some businesses in its path have already shut down or moved.

The catch: before buying near the alignment, pull TxDOT's schematic for that specific segment. Backing up to a future frontage road and sitting two streets away from one are very different purchases, and they'll appraise differently later.

6. Around DTX and the Spur 399 Loop

The evidence: commercial service is scheduled to begin in November 2026. Avelo Airlines expects its first DTX departures sometime from November 11 through November 19, 2026, serving Fort Myers, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, Orlando, and Las Vegas. The new terminal covers 46,000 square feet with four gates that can grow to six, plus 980 parking spaces. Avelo says it will station two aircraft at DTX and add more than 100 jobs.

In May 2026, Bisnow reported that the McKinney Economic Development Corporation had purchased 180 acres beside the airport to recruit advanced manufacturing. Close by, Spur 399 widening work started in 2025, and TxDOT expects the first segment done by summer 2029. The longer term plan loops Spur 399 around the city to connect with US 380.

The catch: noise. Airline jets are louder than the private and business aircraft DTX has mostly handled. Drive the neighborhood at different times and find out where approach and departure paths run before you buy near the field.

Growth Driver Three: Reinvestment Downtown

7. Public Money on Downtown's East Side

The evidence: the city moved itself here. Its new municipal complex at Main and Virginia streets opened in January 2025, on the old Big Bass Towing property, paid for with a $50 million bond voters passed in 2019. Tupps Brewery now occupies the old grain site where Dungan Street meets Greenville Road, helped along by an $11 million grant from the McKinney Community Development Corp. The 2024 Annual Development Report also lists a planned Virginia Street extension to Airport Road and the East McKinney Learning Garden.

Across the square to the west, demolition of the old City Hall and Development Services buildings was planned for early 2026, while Lamar, Tennessee, and Hunt streets are being rebuilt through late 2027. The city has said it and the McKinney EDC will explore turning the former City Hall property into offices.

East McKinney is one of the oldest parts of the city. A large share falls inside the Historic Neighborhood Improvement Zone, whose edges are Airport Dr, US 380, US 75, and Industrial Blvd with Wilson Creek Pkwy. Mayor George Fuller said in 2021 that balancing new investment with rising taxes for longtime residents was "a fragile balance."

The catch: blocks here can be mixed, and change is still ahead. What you get in return is older homes and infill lots priced below west McKinney, with serious public investment a few streets away.

Growth Driver Four: Price

8. The Budget Entry Points: Simpson Crossing and Eastridge

The evidence: these two are the cheapest new construction communities carrying McKinney mailing addresses and McKinney ISD schools, and both are closing homes at a steady clip.

Sales and pricing come from NTREIS MLS.

The catch, in numbers: the city rate is different in each. For 2026, McKinney's city rate is 0.412284 per $100, Princeton's is 0.472959, and Lowry Crossing's is 0.160953. Once you add Collin College (0.081220), Collin County (0.151414), and McKinney ISD (1.0664), the base comes to roughly 1.46 for Simpson Crossing and roughly 1.77 for Eastridge, before any PID. Simpson Crossing's lower base rate is offset by a bigger PID that runs into the 2050s. The McKinney ISD figure depends on the November 3, 2026 tax rate election, so check the result. My Simpson Crossing page runs the full math.

PJ's take: I qualify buyers here on the total payment, PID included. A $346,609 house carrying a PID in the $3,430 to $4,610 range isn't the same loan as a house at that price without one.

What Buying in a Growth Area Really Means

• Builders are the competition, not other buyers. Redfin showed McKinney's August 2026 median sale down 3.5% from a year earlier. In new communities, builders compete hard, and incentives shift month to month, so ask what's on the table when you're ready.

• The tax stack varies more. MUDs, PIDs, and management districts are how roads, water lines, and parks get funded in new areas. Get every line for the specific parcel.

• School zones aren't permanent. After the closure vote, McKinney ISD adopted new attendance zones in December 2025. In fast growing parts of town, assume your assigned campus could change.

• Construction is part of the deal. US 380 and Spur 399 will help access over time, but they'll mean years of work first.

My Method

For permits and project status, I relied on the 2024 Annual Development Report published by the City of McKinney. Road projects and development agreements came from Community Impact and TxDOT documents it reported on. Airport details came from the City's own announcements and trade coverage. School growth came from McKinney ISD board actions. Sales figures for Simpson Crossing, Eastridge, and Trinity Falls came from NTREIS MLS. Any area supported only by marketing copy stayed off the list. For the bigger picture on prices and inventory, see how growth is changing McKinney housing.

Your Questions on McKinney's Growth Areas

Is there a 55 and over option in these growth areas?

Yes. Del Webb has an age restricted section inside Trinity Falls, with new homes starting at $351,990 as of October 2026. Keep in mind the community pays a MUD rate rather than the city rate.

Do Trinity Falls owners pay City of McKinney taxes?

No. Homes there use McKinney addresses and attend McKinney ISD, yet the City says the community is outside its tax jurisdiction, so owners pay a MUD rate instead.

What is a Municipal Management District, and does Honey Creek have one?

It's a special district that can levy its own tax or assessment to fund improvements. The 2024 Honey Creek agreement sets up McKinney's first one, so ask for the rate on any Honey Creek lot.

Where are the cheapest new homes with a McKinney address?

Eastridge, which is in the City of Princeton, closed at a $325,990 median across the last 12 months. Simpson Crossing, in Lowry Crossing, came in at $346,609. Each has McKinney ISD schools and a PID.

Will homes near the airport get noisier?

Likely, once Avelo starts service in November 2026, since airline jets are louder than the aircraft DTX has mostly handled. Check flight paths and visit at different times of day.

When does US 380 bypass construction start in McKinney?

The December 2024 TxDOT documents reported by Community Impact showed the McKinney piece ready to let in 2027, when the first contract award is also expected. Actual construction will run years beyond that.

Could my school assignment change after I buy?

It can. McKinney ISD adopted new attendance zones in December 2025 following its campus closure decision, and fast growing areas are the most likely to see future changes. Aster Park and Highland Lakes, for instance, are Prosper ISD today; verify any address with the district.

Want Numbers on a Specific Lot?

Tell me which of these areas you're weighing. I'll pull recent sales, get the full tax and assessment breakdown for the lot or home you like, and show you the monthly payment with everything in it, since I handle both the purchase and the loan. Call or text me at 469-817-6060, or reach out on my contact page.

Sources: Permits and project status from the City of McKinney's 2024 Annual Development Report. Community coverage from Community Impact on north McKinney housing, Painted Tree, the Honey Creek district, the US 380 bypass, Spur 399, east of Highway 5, the former City Hall, the Historic Neighborhood Improvement Zone, McKinney ISD closures, and new attendance zones. Builder and developer pages: Coventry Homes at Painted Tree, Johnson Development's Trinity Falls, and Del Webb at Trinity Falls. Tax and district data: City of McKinney tax information, McKinney MUD No. 1, the Collin County Tax Assessor, the Simpson Road PID 2026 service plan, and the City of Princeton budget. Airport and economic development: the City of McKinney on Avelo at DTX, Aviation Pros on the DTX routes, and Bisnow on the McKinney EDC. Market data from Redfin for McKinney and Prosper, and NTREIS MLS for the 12 months to October 28, 2026.